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Health Policy and Planning Advance Access originally published online on November 12, 2007
Health Policy and Planning 2008 23(2):118-124; doi:10.1093/heapol/czm043
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Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Hierarchical linear modelling of smoking prevalence and frequency in China between 1991 and 2004

Zhenfeng Pan1,* and Dongsheng Hu2

1Associate Research Scientist, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Louisville, KY 40208, USA.
2Professor of Epidemiology, Dean of College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, 40 Daxue Road, Zhengzhou, Henan 450052, P.R. China.

* Corresponding author. Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, 1300 South 4th Street, Suite 300, Louisville, KY 40208, USA. E-mail: tpan{at}pire.org

This study uses the hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) growth curve technique to explore predictors of the change in the prevalence and frequency of cigarette smoking in China between 1991 and 2004. Using nationally representative data, the study introduces a number of previously unanalysed variables at both the individual and the community level. The findings show that a number of factors are associated with the change in both the prevalence and frequency of smoking in China. In addition, there is a trend of decreasing prevalence of smoking in China after the effects of other covariates are adjusted. Finally, the free market cigarette price has an inconsistent relationship with the change in the prevalence and frequency of smoking, which further reveals the daunting task of tobacco control for public health scholars and policymakers in China.

Key Words: Smoking, China, prevalence, predictors of smoking

Accepted for publication 13 August 2007.


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